T&T: Initial Hurricane Outlook for '07

[GARY RITZMAN]

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Initial Hurricane Outlook<>


Updated: Thursday, March 29, 2007 10:16 AM

Hurricane<http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather
&traveler=0&article=6##> Threat Looms for U.S. Energy Production and Gulf
Coast in 2007

AccuWeather.com's Bastardi: "Last Year Was Just a Breather"

STATE COLLEGE, PA, March 27, 2007 - AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center Chief
Forecaster Joe Bastardi warns that the U.S. Gulf Coast, which avoided the
wrath of major storms and
hurricanes<http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweathe
r&traveler=0&article=6##> in 2006, is at much higher risk of destructive
tropical weather this year. This could have significant implications for the
areas recovering from the devastation wrought by the hurricanes of 2004 and
2005 - which included Katrina - as well as for energy prices, because of the
significant energy production that occurs in the Gulf of Mexico.

Bastardi, who in March of last year correctly forecasted that the region would
get "minimal" attention by that season's hurricanes, said that this year, "the
Gulf and Florida face a renewed threat, and we will see more powerful storms
across the board. We will not get anywhere near the amount of storms that we
did in 2005, but it is the intensity of the storms we do get that will be of
major concern."

"We'll see storms on the prowl in the Gulf again. The entire region -
including New Orleans and other areas that are still rebuilding after Katrina
- is susceptible to landfalling storms. Of concern to consumers everywhere is
that there is so much oil and natural gas drilling and refining occurring in
the Gulf. This year's stronger storms are likely to cause the kind of
disruption that will be felt in wallets and pocketbooks."

As for the Northeast, Bastardi's 2006 forecast still holds: the region is
likely be the target of storm strikes over the next 10 years. "Last year the
Northeast may have dodged a bullet, but unfortunately you can only be lucky
for so long. We are in a pattern similar to that of the late 1930s through the
1940s, when the Northeast was hit by two major storms."

Last year, Bastardi forecast that the East Coast would be far more likely than
the eastern and central Gulf to see hurricane activity, and indeed, most of
2006's storms tracked farther east than in 2005 - including Ernesto, which
caused a half-billion dollars in damages in the region from North Carolina to
New Jersey.

Asked about the diminished number of tropical
cyclones<http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&
traveler=0&article=6##> compared to 2005, AccuWeather.com Director of Forecast
Operations Ken Reeves said, "Keep in mind that in 1992, a year with very few
storms, we saw one of the most destructive in recorded history - Hurricane
Andrew. This year is shaping up to be one that features some potentially very
powerful storms, so whether or not the quantity is there, the danger certainly
is."

The development of an El Nino last year has been frequently cited as a reason
that the 2006 hurricane
season<http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&tr
aveler=0&article=6##> resulted in few landfalling storms, and the development
of a La Nina this year is already causing some forecasters to project a
higher-than-average number of tropical cyclones in 2007. Bastardi and Reeves
believe that the El Nino/La Nina connection is given too much emphasis when
these events are weak.

"Last year's season wasn't truncated because of an El
Nino<http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&trav
eler=0&article=6##>," said Reeves. "After all, there was a much stronger El
Nino in effect in 2004, and that was a significantly more active hurricane
season than last year. Similarly, a La Nina won't be the main driver of this
year's hurricane season." Among many factors that came into play, last year's
storms were weakened by drier-than-normal air and higher-than-normal levels of
dust in the atmosphere over the Atlantic.

Bastardi instead points to the pattern of Atlantic Ocean water temperatures as
a leading factor in determining the power of a hurricane season, as well as
the overall cyclical trend of more extreme weather across the U.S.
Specifically, he points to the recent hot, dry summers in the West and Plains
as a precursor to increased Atlantic Basin hurricane intensity, one of the
patterns identified by his comparative research of previous seasons.

"We are living in a time of climatic hardship," said Bastardi. "We're in a
cycle where weather extremes are more the norm and not the exception. One of
the ways this manifests itself is in the intensity of hurricanes and tropical
storms. Last year was just a breather, because the overall pattern shows no
sign of reversing in the near term."

The full AccuWeather.com hurricane season forecast will be available in early
May, released in conjunction with the Second Annual AccuWeather Hurricane
Summit in Houston, Texas.