T&T: New York hurricane

[LRZeitlin@aol.com]

In a message dated 9/3/06 12:00:56 AM, Phil writes:


> I think there's a lot of people with too much time and grant money on their
> hands. Clearly, anomalies like "the perfect storm" happen along with the
> asteroid, earthquake and volcano movies, but the issue is how much time,
> technology, people, and capital should we spent trying to mitigate risks
> that are possible, but not probable.
> 
> 

A major hurricane with winds of 110 kts. or greater makes landfall in the New 
York area about once every ten years. This is about a third as likely as New 
Orleans. Experts now believe that after Miami and New Orleans, New York City 
is considered the most dangerous major city for the next hurricane disaster. 
According to a 1990 study by the US Army Corps of Engineers, the city has some 
unique and potentially lethal features. New York is essentially an island city. 
Only one borough is on the mainland. Land shortages encourage high density 
housing to be built inappropriately close to the water. New York's major bridges 
such as the Verrazano Narrows and the George Washington are so high that they 
would experience hurricane force winds well before those winds were felt at 
sea-level locations. These escape routes would have to be closed well before 
ground-level bridges (Time, 1998). The two ferry services across the Long Island 
Sound would also be shut down 6-12 hours before the storm surge invaded the 
waters around Long Island, further decreasing the potential for evacuation.
 
A storm surge prediction program used by forecasters called SLOSH (Sea, Lake, 
and Overland Surge from Hurricanes) has predicted that in a category 4 
hurricane, John F. Kennedy International Airport would be under 20 feet of water and 
sea water would pour through the Holland and Brooklyn-Battery tunnels and 
into the city's subways throughout lower Manhattan. Most of Staten Island with 
its mean height above sea level of four feet would be inundated. Fire Island and 
the Brooklyn shoreline would be severely damaged, as would coastal 
communities along the Jersey Shore, Long Island Sound and the lower Hudson River. The 
report did not estimate casualties, but did state that storms "that would 
present low to moderate hazards in other regions of the country could result in 
heavy loss of life" in the New York City area.

If it was almost impossible to evacuate the half million people from New 
Orleans, even with three days warning and the universal expectation that any 
breach in the levees would cause major flooding, imagine how tough it would be to 
get eight million blase New Yorkers, most of whom do not own cars, to head for 
the hinterlands of upstate New York. 

No asteroid impact is necessary for disaster. While an evacuation plan has 
been widely circulated in case of a Three Mile Island type incident at the 
Indian Point Atomic Energy plant 40 miles up the Hudson River from NYC, to the best 
of my knowledge no plan has ever been proposed for the far more likely 
possibility of a Cat. 3, 4, or 5 hurricane hitting Gotham. 

It is sunny today after yesterday's brush with Ernesto.

Larry Z