T&T: Weather Routing Services

[Mike Maurice]

The following comments are not to be considered as criticism of anyone 
in the weather routing business. They are an analysis of this kind of 
service and represent my views and conclusions after having had some 5 
or 6 weeks of use of one service, which I will not name and my contacts 
with others in the business over the past 15 or 20 years.

My observation of the users of such a service leads me to believe that 
even people with extensive amateur backgrounds in weather usage have 
more faith in the accuracy of such predictions than is warranted. If you 
believe that any weather predictions extending out more than 48 hours 
are anything more than a fairy tale, then you are taking more of a 
gamble than I would consider safe, if it involves any sort of serious 
storm. This also includes value added services with personal attention 
given by paid professional weather forecasters.

A weather routing service is selling an intangible product, the value of 
which decreases with every passing minute and may be completely out of 
date by the time it can be acted upon. This is not to say that such a 
service has no value, or should not be relied upon at all. Only that 
caution should be constantly on the minds of anyone using such 
information. A weather router is no substitute for an experienced 
weather observer on scene, with a barometer and access to detailed 
information and capable of making considered judgment. If it is your 
boat and you are the master, that person should be you.

There is a fine line between, romance and reality. Weather routing and 
being paid for it are dancing on that line. The router has to keep the 
client happy and convinced that the fee is  worthwhile and at the same 
time not aggravate the clients sensibilities, which may be very 
unrealistic. Meanwhile, providing information and recommendations that 
are realistic. It may be that the client is more to blame than the 
router for being unrealistic.

If the router provides what I would call vague summaries of the weather 
to be expected, then I would have some complaints. I don't consider wave 
heights and directions to be the most important factors where small 
craft or even 100 foot boats are concerned. In my mind wind speeds and 
directions to be expected are the first and most important factors and 
if wind shifts are expected and cross seas to be generated, that this is 
what counts.

When I construct my own weather analysis, I create what I call "drop 
dead points". In other words, I define times and places that we have to 
be at in order to avoid some bad weather, not because my predictions are 
necessarily any better than anyone else's, but simply to provide guide 
posts to hang my decisions upon. Obviously such points are subject to 
change with more up to date information, which I may obtain from buoys, 
the radio, or other means. None of this actually laid in concrete. If I 
think we have to be around Pt. X, by 1000 hours, then I expend every 
effort to make sure that we are there in time to make the opening or 
avoid rough conditions which I expect to occur.


You may recall that I have said in the past that getting out in front of 
a nearby storm that has the potential to develop into something more 
serious is a very bad idea. Following behind one, if there is no close 
following one, may be a very good idea. I use this tactic frequently and 
am loath to break the rule without a VERY good reason.


I will follow this up with more later.

Mike

_____________________________________
Capt. Mike Maurice
Beaverton Oregon(Near Portland)