[PUP] Dodging Storms

[John Marshall]

If you read Dashew's posts in detail, you'll see that with modern  
forecasting (assuming a 72 hour forecast) and the willingness to  
change course without concern for distance made good along original  
track, and speed in the 11 to 12 knot range, you can avoid the really  
dangerous stuff (over sustained 55 to 60 knots wind). He's got a whole  
strategy around weather avoidance that has been refined over something  
like a half a million miles of cruising. At 7 to 8 knots, you can't  
always avoid a named storm if it pops up when you're in the middle of  
the Pacific.

Of course you still have to work your way through fresh and whole  
gales (maybe 40+ knots and 20+ foot waves), that's why he installs  
aerobatic harnesses in the seats to eliminate crew fatigue (which is  
what really gets well-founded boats in trouble). And he's got a boat  
that's better at handling severe weather than probably any other  
passagemaker afloat.

Of course, if a hurricane/typhoon is coming right down your throat,  
you have to make a left/right 90 degree choice, and not sure what way  
its going to turn. But with his kind of speed, you can make about 280  
miles a day at right angles to the storm's projected path. That's 860  
miles in the three day forecast window, and enough to get out of the a  
hurricane 3 day path probability envelope of the highest winds. That,  
of course, requires you to have a lot of extra range, and the  
willingness and preparation to ride out the storm on the periphery,  
maybe Force 8 stuff as opposed to trying to duck into some port (which  
is even more dangerous).

The fatalistic approach of assuming you can't avoid the weather and  
believing that you and your super-duper boat can ride out a hurricane  
or typhoon with its 40 or 50 foot waves is simply a recipe for  
disaster. Even a Force 10 with its 30 foot waves will quickly disable  
the crew due to fatigue and seasickness, even if the boat is still  
floating.

John


On Dec 13, 2008, at 9:27 PM, DIANNE BOSTON wrote:
> Dodging storms is poppy cock, you can try and in some cases you may  
> get
> lucky but lets face it, any sort of bad weather will be travelling  
> at no
> less than 35 knots and who knows how many miles wide. I would prefer  
> to have
> a vessel that will handle bad weather and come safely out the other  
> side,
> than something that I must always be trying to out run bad weather  
> when it
> turns up, unexpected as it usually does. If you know of a  
> passagemaker that
> will run in heavy weather at more than 35 knots please let me know  
> and I'll
> buy it.
> Rick
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