[PUP] Dodging Storms

[Truelove39 at aol.com]

I  agree also, having closely monitored the bowling balls coming off Cape  
Verde in summer and the November gales off the US East  Coast. 
 
Mitch  and Lenny fooled the experts and the supercomputers. In 1998, Fantome, 
a  280' steel windjammer succumbed to Mitch with all hands despite many  days 
attempting to run away based upon erroneous forecasts. Lenny,  born in 1999 
in the Western Caribbean, became a H near Jamaica and continued  "backwards" to 
the Eastern Caribbean and stalled, thrashing St Martin  and the VI for days. 
Simpson Bay lagoon, long thought to be a safe  hurricane hole, became a 
maelstrom of drifting and sunken  yachts. 
 
2004  saw many cruisers sitting in bays along Grenada's south coast, watching 
the  forecast and debating whether they should run south to Trinidad. The 
prediction  each day was for Ivan to "turn to the northwest," but it didn't 
happen  and all of a sudden the seas were huge, it was impossible to leave, and the 
 most dangerous quadrant laid waste to Grenada and most of it's  boats. 
 
In '98,  I asked the PO of our sailboat to accompany us from Florida to the  
Leewards, saying we'd wait in Ft. Pierce for a weather window. His retort was  
something like, "Why wait? Let's just set a date and go... we're bound to get 
 bad weather along the way anyway."   
 
Regards,
 
John
"Seahorse"
 

> I'm strongly with Mike.  The idea of avoiding heavy weather  is fine on a 
long trip.  Sometimes changing course a few degrees can  avoid a storm but 
the idea of ALWAYS being able to "see it coming" and  changing course is an 
illusion.  In time it becomes clear that you are  in deep trouble without a 
vessel and equipment that will allow you to  withstand a storm.




**************Make your life easier with all your friends, email, and 
favorite sites in one place.  Try it now. 
(http://www.aol.com/?optin=new-dp&icid=aolcom40vanity&ncid=emlcntaolcom00000010)