[PUP] Being prepared (for everything ?)

[Eric Grab]

Hi PUPers,

Mark the "PUP Hazard Vulnerability Assessment (HVA)" is an interesting
approach to answer the being prepared for everything question. Doing
accurate risk and failure assessment can be tough as we go through the
mental calculus to determine what is "safe". This would indeed be an
interesting project to quantify various risks aboard a passage making power
boat.

As you mention it is easy to get it wrong. Things can be over or under
emphasized. It is often not trivial to understand why these mistakes can
happen. Take a look at this essay about "The Psychology of Security":
http://www.schneier.com/crypto-gram-0702a.html. It is a long read and it
does not even mention boating. But it does attempt to summarize how humans
assess risk and fear. Anyone doing some Passagemaking has to come to terms
with risks and fear, as well as balance comfort and overall effort.

There is a lot to consider for going out there in a "safe" way, and people
will have different tolerances. Appropriate gear can make all the
difference. The right procedures can mitigate consequences around risky
things. For example having someone on watch to monitor gauges in a pilot
house and do regular engine room checks can mitigate a serious engine
overheating risk. Also things like MOB drills or practice parachute anchor
deployment can improve the handling of situations when you need to do them
for real.

Having the right tools and spare parts to fix likely trouble spots helps
mitigate problems. Redundancy and more than one way to do something can also
help. And of course the right knowledge and experience contributes
tremendously. A diesel engine mechanic will likely have little fear of
engine failures. Of course they may have trepidation around navigation
electronics, high voltage, septic systems, weather forecasting, etc. It can
increase risk if you go too far down one path of expertise for the sake of
others. You need to be pretty rounded to get the right balance.

As we get to specifics we can look at systems such as propulsion. It is made
up of fuel, engine, transmission, shaft, prop, and controls. And of course
each of those sub-components is made up of further sub components such air
intakes, pumps, coolants, lubrication, etc. etc. Combing through a boat from
stem to stern will find many systems. Some are more of a hazard to fail in
some situations than other others. Some gracefully fail, others
catastrophically fail. Many systems are there for luxury. Understanding
contingency and how far you want to go to handle a problem is one of the big
tradeoffs in boating.

Anyway, being prepared for everything is impossible. One falling meteorite
the size of a car will ruin anyone's day. I assert being prepared for likely
mishaps and discomfort with a certain risk level is in the realm of
possibility for smaller power boats crossing oceans.

--
Eric Grab

-----Original Message-----
From: Mark [mailto:mark424x@yahoo.com] wrote:

Hazard Vulnerability Assessment (HVA) that takes into account both generic
hazards, but also hazards unique to a facility e.g. regional natural
disaster types or proximity, certain industrial hazards, etc.  These are
used to prioritize the risk mitigation plan.

It would interesting to see an HVA for PUP.  As Scott noted it would
certainly take into account cruising region, but also attributes of the
vessel and crew, etc.