[PUP] GRIB files & Hurricane Dean

[John Marshall]

I was once told by a meteorologist that the GRIB files come out of  
one of the weather models (don't recall which one), but that there  
are other models (4 or 5 I believe). Meteorologists pick the model  
that their experience tells them best fits, or use averages or  
consensus models to produce their forecasts. As in, human  
intelligence and judgement are involved.

I've found that GRIB's tend to match conditions I've experienced on  
the west coast under steady state conditions, or when large Pacific  
fronts that can be forecast many days in advance are approaching.

I believe Hurricane forecasting is a whole other game.  Signing up  
for the automatic email updates on the hurricane prediction center  
give you the latest and best.  But no pretty graphics.

John Marshall
N5520-Serendipity

On Aug 19, 2007, at 4:23 PM, John Harris wrote:

>>> We have noticed this in the past to an extent however this is  
>>> scary to
>>> think that they are so far in error as to be dangerous in their
>>> inaccuracy for storms like this.
>
>>> Is anyone else seeing this or am I alone here?
> ============================
>
> I have just looked at the Caribbean area and it shows a maximum  
> wind of 45
> knots, this is a MAJOR difference than the 140 MPH that the weather  
> channel
> is predicting.
>
> This seems like a useless weather resource.
>
> John Harris
> World Odd @ Sea
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