[PUP] Imperfection in the face of the Perfect Storm

[Mike Maurice]

I recall now that I intended to write up something about my transit from 
Hong Kong to Columbia River last summer, in regards to Typhoons.

The passage was made in July and as you may recall Typhoon season is 
anytime there is a Typhoon. Which in plain english means there is no 
safe month. In the not so distant past, transiting in small and slow 
boats in Typhoon country in Typhoon season was a very risky venture. 
Today the the risk is much different, but the consequences can be just 
as deadly.

To summarize the weather forecasting situation. Due to the number and 
quality of the satellites whirling around the globe it is virtually 
impossible for a tropical storm to get started without being noticed. 
The forecasting models are much more accurate and the chances of 
becoming entangled with a big, bad Typhoon are very low. But, and here 
is the caveat: there is little room for mistakes.

Getting down to cases. When we left Hong Kong there was a Tropical 
Storm(TS) in motion east of the Phillipines. It was slow moving but 
quite dangerous and it basically followed us all the way to Northern 
Japan. To be more specific: it hit the Island of Jeju(So. Korea) about 4 
days after we left there and the remnants, which consisted of clouds, 
rain and some moderate winds engulfed us at the Island of Hokkaido, the 
last big island of Japan. The overall time involved covered a period of 
about 2 weeks and over 2 thousand miles.

The fact is that we never had to take any particular action to avoid 
getting hurt by this storm, except to keep a constant eye on it. But, it 
is worth some study to consider what steps we might have been forced to 
take if it had become a close quarters threat. And this is where things 
get real interesting.

Even if you buy all the NIMA charts or the copies from say, Bellingham 
Chart printers; the level of detail that you are likely to have for the 
entire route from Hong Kong to Northern Japan is not nearly as good as 
that you can access for the US Coastline. This is partly due to the 
number of countries involved, their sensitive security concerns and last 
but not least the intricate, ruggged coastline along the route.

The charts available for mainland China are sparse, then there is 
Taiwan, So. Korea and Japan. The Japanese are unlikely to behead you for 
some infraction of their rules, but they can be mighty strict if they 
want to be. It is real difficult to find the lowest price product like 
for say fuel, in any of these countries. As a consequence it is 
difficult to identify the best place to head for shelter if a storm 
threatens.

To put it bluntly, there is no thorough small boat cruising guide with a 
list of harbors, marinas, supplies, clearance locations, phone numbers, 
etc. It's not that you can't work your way through all this, it's just 
that the lack of information leaves a lot to be desired. At the present 
time the internet is probably the best source, although the relevant 
information is widely scattered.

I am presently reviewing the tactics we used on this trip with the 
objective of making improvements where feasible.

More later.

Regards,
Mike