GL: Big Bend of Florida

[bob Austin]

First you have to look a number of days ahead on the forecast.  Be sure that
the normal pattern will prevail. That there is not a strong front comming off
the Atlantic, or that a second Norther is right behind the current one.  The
Norther is dangerous because of the wind velocity.  We have just  had 3 days
of 25 to 35 knots of wind--with higher gusts the last week.  If you get wind
against seas, even with following seas, you can have a dangerous situation in
some boats--in others there can be control problems with 8 to 10 foot seas.
See:
http://members.aol.com/Rosendalhe/northers.htm  for an nice explaination of
the Northers and some of the problems.

As the wind begins to clock  then the trip become safer as the velocity dies
to 5 to 10 knots.  For example it is always good to look at the forcast and
conditions along the route from the NOAA bouy page:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/Forecasts/FZUS52.KTBW.html  Bouy Station
42021-C14, Pasco County @

      28.3 N 83.3 W (28018'06" N 83017'55" W) is enroute for your trip--toward
the end--and will give you good information as to what to expect.  The next
three days will have North winds 15 to 20 knots. and seas 5 to 7+ feet.  By
Friday AM the winds will be North East at 2 to 3 feet and Saturday East at 10
knots with seas 2 feet--a good crossing window.  You would want to confirm
that forecast with Keaton Beach station, which is about half way around the
rim--and find that almost exactly the same conditions will prevail.

      One has to be patient and wait for the right window.  When the window
comes--then move.  A few years ago I was doing the weather routing for a boat
returning from Isla Muejeres Mexico.  I told him to leave at 5 PM that day.
He said "no" he wanted to  have a nice brunch the next AM and leave at noon.
Big mistake. About 60 miles off Pensacola, he got hit with 60 knots and 20
foot seas--hove too he was blown back 100 miles during this time.  If he had
left the 18 hours earlier, he would have been safely in port.  So be very
careful in picking the weather.
      Although the rim route gives more protection--with the shallow waters,
and lack of experience I see in many "Loopers" it can become a difficult
situation rapidly.

      Bob Austin